MEETING RECAP- DR. LAWTON DAVIS THE DELTA VARIANT
On August 24, Dr. Lawton Davis, Director of the Coastal Health District of Georgia, made a Zoom presentation to the Skidaway Hamiltons and Abigails on the Delta variant. The Delta variant was first identified in India in December 2020 and first detected in Georgia in April. The R0 value for measuring contagious infections of the original virus was 2.2, the British Alpha variant was 4.4, and the Delta variant is between 8 and 12; so, it is highly contagious. We are seeing quite a few breakthrough infections with the Delta variant because of fading vaccine efficacy and the fact that Delta infections tend to concentrate in the upper respiratory system (nose and throat), but severe infections are rare because the cellular antibody response is still strong. Side effects of the vaccines are rare and typically occur in the first two months. There appear to be no issues with pregnancy or fertility.
Chatham County is experiencing its largest number of cases and hospitalizations at the present time. School age children are having the largest increase in the past two weeks. Those hospitalized are overwhelmingly unvaccinated. Fortunately, the vaccination rate over 65 is close to 100%.
In India, it took three or four months for the new case rate to return to the pre-Delta level. That suggests we may get back to late June levels in October or November. It might be sooner if the downslope is as steep as the upslope. India had a much lower vaccination rate but achieved some level of herd immunity. It would be far preferable to reach herd immunity through vaccinations.
The FDA just issued a full license for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for 15 and over. Moderna is working toward FDA approval as well. J&J is probably a few months away. Immunocompromised people can get a 3rd dose 28 days after the 2nd dose of mRNA vaccines. The current recommendation is for those who are not immunocompromised to wait 8 months after the 2nd dose. If one were to get a 3rd dose early, it is not likely to hurt you. The Health District will not give 3rd doses due to a lack of malpractice coverage. We are seeing more people getting vaccinated due to the rise in cases and formal FDA approval is also likely to help. The District is trying to set up a testing/vaccine site at Gulfstream again and is encouraging other vaccine providers to keep vaccinating people.
In Q&A, Dr. Lawton said he is not losing sleep over the possibility of another more dangerous variant but as long as the virus is out there, it can mutate. He said vaccine protection is 2.5 times more effective than having had Covid. He noted that the protection level of antibodies is not really known so antibody tests are not particularly useful.
He said it would be OK to have a booster that was a different mRNA vaccine. It is too early to get a flu shot. Wait until mid-October.
When asked “if I’m fully vaccinated and had the booster, can I safely see unvaccinated grandchildren?”, Dr. Davis said that depended on how observant the family is and how much risk you wish to take.
